Section 435 An Atlanta Braves blog. From the upper deck at Turner Field.

2009 or Beyond?

For the unsuccessful 2006 and 2007 campaigns, the Braves decided that they had enough talent in the queue to make a few key moves to re-up for the next season. In 2007, the Braves just didn’t have the starting pitching depth to take them all the way. It was Hudson and Smoltz and pray for rain. This year, injuries to almost our entire pitching staff and serious underachievement at the plate from the corner outfield positions doomed our hopes.

With the trade of Mark Teixeira to the Angels for Casey Kotchman and Some Duder, the Braves made it clear that they’re in rebuidling mode. But the question that we should all be asking is, “When are we rebuidling for?”

After losing Tim Hudson for most of next year to Tommy John surgery (and I’m wondering if I prophesied this way back when), it’s not quite such a sure thing that we should be looking to compete in 2009. With Hudson and Jurrjens, we would still have a fomidable front end of the rotation which we’d be able to fortify in the back in with guys like Campillo, Reyes, or Morton, and maybe the offseason acquisition of a reliable number 3ish quality veteran.

But with Hudson gone for the first two thirds of the season and in rehab mode if he makes it back for the rest, the whole tenor of our offseason search changes. Jair’s been fantastic this year, don’t get me wrong, but he’s still a bit off in development and durability from being a number one guy. So now we’re at least an ace-caliber starter away from contention for next year. With the price and scarcity of starting pitching, even if we’re ready to drop a huge load on an arm of that caliber, it’s not even certain that we could find someone. And while we’ve got some talented pitching in the minors, none of those arms are ready to take up that mantel next year either.

Aside from the pitching, we’re also going to need some help in the outfield next year. Left field has been a train wreck. Right field has been a train wreck for different reasons, and I don’t expect we’ll be seeing the return of Mark Kotsay next year. Honestly, after the year Francoeur’s having, I wouldn’t give it more than 2-1 odds that he’ll be back, especially when there’s been some interest in a guy who’s turned into a bit of a risky proposition.

The infield is pretty much set with Kotchmania, KJ, Yunel, and Chipper and his body double. McCann is looking more and more like the guy who will inherit Chipper’s role as the face of the Braves as Chipper’s health continues to limit his role.

So we’ve got a big choice. Do we re-up and aim for 2009 or do we take a few steps back, load up on prospects and build from within for 2010 and beyond? We’ve got a lot of exciting talent that we keep hearing about in our farm system, and a shot at the post season for next year will definitely cost us some of that (and some serious cash). After the patchwork, band-aid rosters of the past two seasons, I could probably accept another rebuilding year next year if that gives us hope to reignite the old dynasty. At the same time, losing has become a foreign, uncomfortable feeling for Braves fans, one that I don’t think most of us are ready to accept in the name of rebuilding. I think we all know which direction the front office will be looking, but what do y’all think?

Peace Out, Corky

109 games too late, the Braves finally closed the door on our long Corky nightmare. I can’t imagine that he won’t clear waivers. I also can’t imagine why the Braves would want to keep him in any capacity. Of course, I couldn’t fathom why they’d keep the Corkster over Brayan Pena way back when, so who knows what they front office is thinking. Maybe Corky has some unflattering pictures of Frank Wren or proof that Bobby Cox beats his wife… oh, wait. Corky has never been more than a below average AAAA-type backup catcher. But this year he’s been unbelievably bad on every level. Offense. Defense. Facial hair. All bad. And that the Braves chose to start him in any number of key games is just scary.

The downside of releasing Corky is that we only have Chucky James and Jeff Francoeur left to boo. And with Francoeur on a lukewarm streak over the last week or so, it’s truly fortunate for the boobirds that Chucky has returned. They (we?) will be booing his performance against the Brewers for weeks to come.

Folks, I’ve seen some bad games pitched in my life. I’ve seen pitchers give up more hits and more runs in fewer innnings than Chucky gave up last night. But I have not seen many performances that were just that convincingly bad. Besides a Prince Fielder popup, pretty much every batter he faced was a walk or a hard hit ball. The Brewers doubled Corky Miller’s yearly offensive production in 2.2 innings.

On the Catcher Situation

Just a quick note after tonight’s stormy affair with the Cardinals:

Corky Miller, in 26 games and 54 at bats this season, has 5 hits, 1 HR, and 3 RBIs.

Clint Sammons equaled Corky Miller’s HR and RBI totals tonight alone.

Goodbye, Tex

When Mike Hampton of all people is the only Brave not currently on the DL, it FINALLY became apparent to management that this season was over. So, mark your calendars for Casey Kotchman bobblehead day sometime in 2009, 2010, and 2011.

With Kotchman we get some stability at first base for the next few years, a steady bat, though lacking Tex’s power, and someone who, from reports, is as able defensively as Tex. You know, so long as he is able to keep the malaise at bay.

When asked for comment on the trade, Scott Thorman responded, “Fuck.”

Duder McWhoeverstein, a AA pitcher, was also included in the trade. Like Casey Kotchman, he also has a better chance at playing first base for the Atlanta Braves than Scott Thorman.

Frank Wren had this to say about McWhoeverstein, “Look, we would’ve gotten two draft picks for Tex next spring if we’d hung on to him. So I’d look like a total jackass if I only got one guy back now.”

All in all, probably not quite the deal we were hoping to get. But still an improvement over draft picks as we get at least one body who we know can play quality baseball at the major league level.

On My Absence

Apologies for my prolonged absence. I’m in the midst of a move. It’s only a mile down the road, but I’ve been in and out of boxes and without the internet tubes. Things should be approaching normalcy again by this weekend’s series against the Brew Crew. I’ll be back to analyze the trade-deadline carnage (both literal and figurative) then.

Another Brutal One

Washington: Like a Kajillion, Atlanta: Significantly Less. (Okay, fine. 15-6.) Folks, today was the first time that I can remember actually leaving a game before the final out. Yogi Berraisms aside, this one was over.

So we lost two out of three to the team with the worst record in baseball going into the series. This was not a good team that we lost to. And this was not even a bad team at its best. Dmitri Young, Nick Johnson, and Ryan Zimmerman are all riding the DL train right now. They used Paul Lo Duca at first for this series for goodness sakes. Ryan Langerhans, whose bat last year makes this year’s Francoeur look like Ted Fucking Williams, bashed our pitchers around like it was beer-league softball.

Going into the second half, Braves fans were holding out hope that the bats would turn around and start performing as well as our pitching staff has. Instead, our pitching has been abysmal. 15 is the most runs we’ve given up since September of 2006.

Jo-Jo Reyes is reverting back to his old ways. In 10 games from May 3 to June 18 his K/BB was 22/50. In 5 games since, it’s 12/10. That’s what it boils down to for Jo-Jo: control. No control, no Jo-Jo mojo. I still think he’ll get that sorted out and will be a quality major league starter. But he’s shown us once again that he’s got a little ways to go.

Same Ol’ Song and Dance

Washington 8, Atlanta 2. This was the kind of loss we’ve come to expect from the Braves this year. Nothing doing on the offense once runners get on base.

• John Lannan is apparently only a competent pitcher against the Braves. Against the Braves, he excels.
• Ryan Langerhans had more hits tonight than his entire 2007 tour with the Braves.
• Francoeur was still Francoeur, 2008 vintage. There were some folks in our section tonight with an M-Braves bag. I thought they might be there to bring him back.
• Jair Jurrjens didn’t have it tonight. Neither did Buddy Carlyle or Royce Ring.
• Julian Tavarez had it. I guess that’s a positive.

So, who’s still on the bandwagon?

Battle of Who Could Care Less

Atlanta 7, Washington 6. Wow, was that an ugly game. If we were playing a team that actually cared about winning instead of the former-Brave-AAAA-All-Stars we could have easily lost that one.

Here’s a list of Atlanta Braves castoffs on the Nationals’ roster right now:

• Ryan Langerhans
• Pete Orr
• Odalis Perez
• Johnny Estrada
• Willie “Caught Stealing” Harris, the second best player ever out of Cairo, GA

The plus side to the game was that the bats were not only hot but efficient. 7 runs on 8 hits, 5 left on base. None of the double-digit LOB that we’ve been seeing a lot of in the first half.

The down side of the game was … well, it was ugly.

• Tim Hudson didn’t pitch well. He made short work of the Nats early, but only because their hard-hit balls were hard hit right at folks. They started finding holes later on and put 5 on the board against Huddy. Of course, he deserved to get a win on a bad outing after getting stuck with Ls and NDs on some pretty good outings.
• The outfield looked a little rusty. Kotsay misplayed a ball on a Kory Casto double over his head, probably costing him second base. Francoeur stood there and watched a Ryan Langerhans triple down the first base line, presumably thinking it was foul, not really taking off towards the ball until the umpire signaled it fair. That definitely cost third base. Honestly, if I were calling the shots from the dugout, I would have sat Francoeur’s lazy ass right then and there.
• Mike Gonzales had a rough outing, giving up a run, though he still managed to pick up the save. I think Gonzo’s due some patience, though. Let us not forget that he’s a month back from Tommy John surgery. That he is pitching as well as he is right now should be cause for celebration, not concern.

Counterpoint: What the Braves Need to do to Win

Going into the All-Star break, I suggested it’s time for the Braves to wave the big white flag on 2008. I think I’m in the minority on that opinion. It’s hard to argue that 6.5 games is an insurmountable deficit, and with a second half full of division matchups, we certainly have a lot of chance to help ourselves.

So with that in mind, here’s a round-up of what we need to do to win:

• Braves.Today.Com » Blog Archive » Braves at the Break: It’s now or never for this team
• Braves need these 5 things to get back in race | ajc.com
• For the Braves to Make the Playoffs… – Talking Chop
• Braves Need Magic (Not a Trade) To Make a Push « The Launching Pad-An Atlanta Braves Blog

Baseball starts again tonight as the hapless (against all teams that aren’t the Braves) Nationals come to town. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll be ecstatic if, come September, the Bravos make me eat my words.

Grasping at Straws

There’s a scene at the end of the movie Miracle, about the 1980 U.S. Olympic hockey team, when the upstart Americans are leading the Soviets with less than two minutes to go in the semifinals. The Americans start wondering when the Soviets are going to pull their goalie to get an extra skater in the game. As the clock ticks down the final seconds towards an American upset, the American coach realizes that the Soviet coach doesn’t know what to do at the end of the game when you’re trailing because the Soviets had never trailed at the end of a game.

That’s exactly where the Braves have been at the All-Star break the last couple of years. After so many years of winning, they don’t know what to do when they’re not.

Well, here’s my free (and worth every penny) advice to the Braves’ front office for the 2008 season: hang it up. Your goose is cooked.

You can say throwing in the towel makes me a bad fan, but my fan credentials are there. I was at the Ted for every inning of every game both times the Bravos got swept by the Phillies. I stayed for 17 innings last weekend. My girlfriend dreads each loss knowing the funk it puts me in. I want to see this team win. But let’s face it; it’s not in the cards for 2008. Rather than selling the future for the next Tex that will push this .500ish team towards a .505ish team, let’s start sorting out the lessons to learn from this year and start putting together the pieces for next year and beyond.

Sure, we’re only 6.5 back in an underachieving division. The Mets really aren’t as good as we should be. The Marlins and Phillies are playing way better than their pitching staffs should allow. And we’ve overcome bigger deficits than this in our long run.

But I was sucked in by that siren song last year and ra-ra’ed when we added an impact player whose huge impact didn’t impact our record much. The fact of the matter is adding a couple of pieces to fill in our holes – a big outfield bat and maybe another solid reliever – just isn’t going to cut it. There is something more fundamental that is flawed with the 2008 Atlanta Braves. This team is less than the sum of its parts. They don’t know how to win. What’s missing is more than any sabremetric is going to figure out. It’s confidence. It’s leadership. It’s all those intangibles that the numbers guys hate.

Of course, the folks in the front office won’t wave the white flag. They just don’t know how. Buckle yourself in for another second half in which we hang on until mid-September with the playoffs just tantalizingly outside of our grasps. We’ll pick up the Cubs’ fans’ old mantra of “wait ’til next year,” but next year and the next years to come won’t be quite as sweet as they could be had we decided to be sellers this year.

I cringed at our big win in San Diego tonight for just that reason. Maybe two straight series losses going into the break would tip the honchos to our fate. But just like that 5 game streak of huge wins after the break in 2006, just like Tex’s big entrance in 2007, we go into the week off with one tiny little straw to grasp at.