Section 435 An Atlanta Braves blog. From the upper deck at Turner Field.

2009 or Beyond?

For the unsuccessful 2006 and 2007 campaigns, the Braves decided that they had enough talent in the queue to make a few key moves to re-up for the next season. In 2007, the Braves just didn’t have the starting pitching depth to take them all the way. It was Hudson and Smoltz and pray for rain. This year, injuries to almost our entire pitching staff and serious underachievement at the plate from the corner outfield positions doomed our hopes.

With the trade of Mark Teixeira to the Angels for Casey Kotchman and Some Duder, the Braves made it clear that they’re in rebuidling mode. But the question that we should all be asking is, “When are we rebuidling for?”

After losing Tim Hudson for most of next year to Tommy John surgery (and I’m wondering if I prophesied this way back when), it’s not quite such a sure thing that we should be looking to compete in 2009. With Hudson and Jurrjens, we would still have a fomidable front end of the rotation which we’d be able to fortify in the back in with guys like Campillo, Reyes, or Morton, and maybe the offseason acquisition of a reliable number 3ish quality veteran.

But with Hudson gone for the first two thirds of the season and in rehab mode if he makes it back for the rest, the whole tenor of our offseason search changes. Jair’s been fantastic this year, don’t get me wrong, but he’s still a bit off in development and durability from being a number one guy. So now we’re at least an ace-caliber starter away from contention for next year. With the price and scarcity of starting pitching, even if we’re ready to drop a huge load on an arm of that caliber, it’s not even certain that we could find someone. And while we’ve got some talented pitching in the minors, none of those arms are ready to take up that mantel next year either.

Aside from the pitching, we’re also going to need some help in the outfield next year. Left field has been a train wreck. Right field has been a train wreck for different reasons, and I don’t expect we’ll be seeing the return of Mark Kotsay next year. Honestly, after the year Francoeur’s having, I wouldn’t give it more than 2-1 odds that he’ll be back, especially when there’s been some interest in a guy who’s turned into a bit of a risky proposition.

The infield is pretty much set with Kotchmania, KJ, Yunel, and Chipper and his body double. McCann is looking more and more like the guy who will inherit Chipper’s role as the face of the Braves as Chipper’s health continues to limit his role.

So we’ve got a big choice. Do we re-up and aim for 2009 or do we take a few steps back, load up on prospects and build from within for 2010 and beyond? We’ve got a lot of exciting talent that we keep hearing about in our farm system, and a shot at the post season for next year will definitely cost us some of that (and some serious cash). After the patchwork, band-aid rosters of the past two seasons, I could probably accept another rebuilding year next year if that gives us hope to reignite the old dynasty. At the same time, losing has become a foreign, uncomfortable feeling for Braves fans, one that I don’t think most of us are ready to accept in the name of rebuilding. I think we all know which direction the front office will be looking, but what do y’all think?

Does this mean they’d be more likely to sign Hampton again? Ha! But stranger things have happened.

You know, when you re evaluate the Tex trade, we basically ended up with Kotchman and “duder” for Neftali Feliz, Andrus, Satly, and…. (I’m drawing a blank here…)

So when/how do we say if it’s worth it? I’ll tell you one thing. After hearing about Feliz the 20 year old fireballer, I’d love to have him back. But such is life.

I think the rebuilding will really start this offseason. We lose Glavine, Hampton, and (maybe) Smoltz goes in the ‘pen but we’ve got some money to spend to go out and get three new starters (and I think we need all three spots filled by someone other than JoJo, James, Morton). I don’t think Kotsay will stay but I’m not sure there’s an Anderson or Schaefer that’s really ready for the full time job. Maybe we get a power hitting LF’er and stick Blanco there. I’d say he’s had a good enough season to stick around.

In short, this winter may really determine what kind of GM we have in Frank Wren.

~JB

[...] I talked about last time, more than anything, losing Hudson for most of next year really changes the outlook for the [...]

I say let the rebuilding begin/continue. Our team is good enough as is to keep things quasi-interesting, for a bit at least, and no one piece will make them that much better.

I think our starting pitching will hold up fine, if, of course, Hudson comes back healthy. Re-signing Glavine (if he doesn’t retire) or Hampton wouldn’t be a terrible idea, if it were for the right price.

As for Francoeur, I’d be surprised if Wren let him go but who knows. Get rid of Kotsay and let the young’uns tough it out and develop next year - not much to lose if they don’t measure up to a veteran’s production.