Trade Winds: Starting Pitching
The first in a series on the Atlanta Braves’ potential for making moves this summer.
Most of the talk about moves the Braves would make this summer involve starting pitching. After the loss of John Smoltz and Mike Hampton to injury and the loss of the Chuck James Experiment to excruciating suckitude, we’ve been plumbing the depths of… well, all that depth that we heard about at the beginning of the season to find guys on the mound.
Let’s take a look at our starting five through Sunday’s game:
Tim Hudson
| GS | W | L | IP | BB | K | ERA |
| 14 | 7 | 4 | 91.1 | 23 | 54 | 2.86 |
Hudson’s stepped into the role of solo-ace quite nicely. He’s had a couple of shaky performance but several more in which he’s been well-nigh unhittable. He’s also our only pitcher who’s reliably gone deep into games this year. Huddy’s our ace for the next several years.
Jair Jurrjens
| GS | W | L | IP | BB | K | ERA |
| 13 | 6 | 3 | 76.1 | 32 | 55 | 3.77 |
Jurrjens went from competing for the fourth or fifth spot to being one of our most consistent starters. After a strong start, JJ has given up 14 runs in 15 innings in his last 3 starts. Don’t expect the club to give up on this one, though.
Tom Glavine
| GS | W | L | IP | BB | K | ERA |
| 11 | 2 | 2 | 91.1 | 29 | 34 | 4.47 |
With Glavine, we got exactly what we hoped we’d get when we signed him over the winter. (Well, except that DL stint.) Not a Cy Young gun, but a fairly solid number 3. Glavine deserves better than has 2-2 record.
Jo-Jo Reyes
| GS | W | L | IP | BB | K | ERA |
| 8 | 2 | 4 | 45 | 16 | 42 | 4.80 |
Jo-Jo Reyes made his first appearances last fall, having a brutal couple of months. After pitching well in Richmond this spring, he got another shot at the big club. Most of the damage against him this year has been in two starts (5ER at Philly, 7 vs. Arizona) and he’s starting to look a lot more comfortable on the mound. The BB/K ratio has vastly improved since last year (2007: 1.11; 2008: 0.38). The organization still has Jo-Jo in its plans, so I don’t imagine he’s going anywhere.
Jorge Campillo
As a starter:
| GS | W | L | IP | BB | K | ERA |
| 5 | 2 | 0 | 24.1 | 4 | 21 | 2.96 |
Campillo is the big question mark. He’d been toiling in obscurity in Mexico and Seattle’s farm system until joining the Braves and posting a 0.99 ERA in his first 16 appearances. He’s cooled down since, but has still been stable. Can he keep up the good work? If the Braves decide to go after another starter, though, Campillo would still fit in well into the bullpen.
The Current Rotation
Barring injury*, slots 1-3 aren’t going to change, and I wouldn’t look for the Braves to give up on Jo-Jo just yet. On the other hand, while Campillo has been pitching very well as a starter, bringing in a new arm and sending Campillo back to the bullpen addresses not only the starting pitching but also adds another reliable arm to the late innings stable.
* Which is a possibility as Hudson has pitched hurt a couple of times this year, Glavine made his DL debut and is… well, old, and Jurrjens has been battling blisters.
Other Options In-House
Jeff Bennett and Buddy Carlyle are in the bullpen with the big club right now. Both have proven themselves to be capable, if not brilliant, starters at the major league level. Although Bennett has taken on the spot starter role a couple of times this season, Bobby obviously likes him in the bullpen for long relief. My Buddy did a tour as our number four starter last year, but there’s not much reason to think he’d do better than Jorge Campillo has, so I don’t imagine we’ll see him as a starter again this year.
In the minors, Charlie Morton has been heating up. Still, his record prior to this year hasn’t been impressive, and I think the Braves would like to give him one more season in the minors. He might be an option to fill in for a start or two, but not to take a permanent spot in the rotation. Meanwhile, Chuck James is just returning from a DL stint for a bothersome shoulder, so there’s no telling if we’ll ever see him again or if we’ll end up just demoting him to Kansas City.
Oh, yeah. Mike Hampton is hoping to be back by the All-Star break. In other news: WOOOOOLF!!!!
Potential Moves
Here are some names that have (or haven’t been) been bandied about as potential trade bait.
Greg Maddux - The Padres are looking to unload after knocking themselves out of contention with a poor start. Maddux is in the last year of his contract and likely the last year of his career. Maddux isn’t in the prime of his career, but he’s put up good numbers this year and gone at least 6 more often than not. Maddux would fit the bill, but don’t look to Braves to give up top prospects for 3 1/2 months of Maddux.
Rich Harden - I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rich Harden go to somewhere that is not Atlanta this summer. Billy Beane’s going to want a lot for him and the last thing the Braves need is another big paycheck on the DL.
C.C. Sabathia - Mark Teixeira to the Indians for C.C. Sabathia? Nah.
Freddy Garcia - Apparently, the Braves are watching Freddy Garcia as he’s rehabbing from injury.
Joe Blanton - Ken Rosenthal reported that the Braves talked to Billy Beane about Joe Blanton but were nowhere near the price. Blanton’s 3-8 with a 4.15 ERA, which really isn’t an improvement over anyone in our rotation. Obviously we’re not going to give up the farm for him.
Sidney Ponson - The Rangers cast off Ponson for being disruptive in the clubhouse. I know that stuff doesn’t fly in Atlanta (and apparently not in Arlington, either), but with a 4-1 record and 3.88 ERA, somebody is going to pick this guy up for cheap.
Kevin Millwood - Jayson Stark dropped this name, but don’t look for the Rangers to part with any more pitchers after releasing Ponson.
Prospects
Don’t count on seeing a blockbuster starting pitching move this summer. The cost/benefit in the long term is too steep to add another ace right now. Maddux is a good option if the price is right, but the price won’t be right. On the other hand, taking a stab at rehab project like Ponson or Garcia that wouldn’t cost us much just might be worth the shot.
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